News
The Grain ReportHappy New Year to everyone and what a start we have had so far as we have seen corn move $ .40 higher and beans $ .90 higher in the last two weeks. Now we start the true post harvest grain marketing and shipping cycle. The thing to keep in mind is that the shipping window will slip away rather quickly and that combined with the disappearance of substantial demand (ethanol, livestock, exports, etc) will have the price on the defensive.Another larger issue hanging is the quality of this year’s crop and the storability issue. We are still shipping and drying corn from our locations that do not have driers, as this past harvest is the gift that keeps on giving as far as drying is concerned. Also, we are already seeing some problems showing up across the scale with corn going out of condition and it is not just wet corn stored; even corn that was dried has had problems. So I guess what I am trying to say is CHECK YOUR BINS WEEKLY!!!! Some of the battles in the market now are the struggle over acres between beans and corn. As most producers have said the corn price needs to be higher to be profitable enough to grow. Then you have the demand side such as ethanol producers saying if ethanol prices do not improve, then the corn price needs to drop or there will be additional losses on the demand side. The world economy continues to wreak havoc on the export demand. So, as the old saying goes, "high prices take care of high prices" then the other side is also true that low prices take care of low prices. Sounds like the pendulum effect or cycles to me. But regardless, we are probably going to have to work through this with an eye on the past, and not just the last couple years but back into the 1980’s, as there are lessons to be learned in history or at least not repeat the same mistakes. The million dollar question to be asked is whether or not the six and seven dollar corn was a bubble caused by the funds and overall market frenzy, or was it a true reflection of limited stocks and excess demand? Maybe a look back at 1995-96 and the outcome of the $5 plus corn price and what all occurred before during and after that will help put things in perspective. Then, throw in the early 1980’s just for some additional comparison value. Now what does all the earlier gibberish actually mean? Mostly just that we need to keep things in perspective as far as the prices are concerned and that we need to look at the overall worldwide economy as well as our own backyard. We will also need to keep an eye on the new administration’s ag policies and what all will be potentially changed. But all these issues are also opportunities and just need to be handled as such. As far as the merger with SCE and HOIC, the Grain Department should be pretty seamless and you should not notice any big differences from January 31st to February 1st when the merger takes effect. Also, we would like to thank everyone for voting on the merger and your patronage this past year. Filed under: Grain Department News Back to News
|

