News

Now that fall harvest is finally over and the field work has come to an end, many producers are turning their attention to next year with hopes that ‘09 will not be a repeat of ’08, at least from an operational standpoint. After just having gone through a season full of so many different challenges, from the beginning of the growing season all the way to the end, no doubt it will take some intestinal fortitude, perseverance, and an optimistic mind-set to move on and focus on a new year with renewed hope.

Until recently, most producers have been too busy trying to wrap up the field work to even think about their input decisions for next year. As fall tillage has come to a halt and producers stop for a moment to catch their breath, we can definitely feel the gears shifting (or grinding rather) into the ’09 planning season.

Since Thanksgiving, there has been a steady increase in the number of phone calls and sit-down appointments regarding what to do for next year, especially concerning seed. We have had many questions regarding individual hybrid/variety performance and agronomics this past year as well as inquiries about the increased cost of seed for the coming year. We have also had many conversations around the value of individual hybrid/trait combinations vs. seed cost as well as discussions on other important issues such as hybrid maturity mix, genetic diversity, and seed/crop protection options. Consequently, I think that it’s a good time to address some of the aforementioned issues in this newsletter as we continue to meet and sit down around the table and put together seed plans for the upcoming season.

Product performance was certainly a mixed bag this year. Yields were all over the board making it a real challenge to compare individual hybrid/variety performance between plots and from field to field. Average yields varied widely between fields (from below 100 bu/ac to 200+) even when comparing the same hybrid or variety. As usual, many factors came into play in determining overall yields, but two things really stood out this year. I’m sure that these things will come as no surprise to those of you who saw this first-hand in your own fields. Wet field conditions over an extended period of time was probably the single most deciding factor in determining the overall yield level for any individual field regardless of the hybrid or variety planted. External and internal drainage (aka tile) had a major impact on planting date, emergence/uniformity, nitrogen loss, and ultimately, yield. The wet field conditions, along with ponding and flooding in many fields, had a significant effect on the second most limiting factor, nitrogen. In addition to nitrogen loss from leaching and denitrification, there was very little mineralization of nitrogen in the soil due to waterlogged, anaerobic conditions which limited microbial activity. Split applications of nitrogen and side-dressing, especially in continuous corn, really helped mitigate the effects of the wet year on nitrogen loss.

Large scale variations in yield this year can be attributed to the two aforementioned critical factors: 1) wet, ponded field conditions and 2) insufficient nitrogen availability. Differences in yield by hybrid/variety or maturity were secondary or smaller in scale in comparison. With the year being what it was, I would highly recommend not putting too much stock into this year’s data alone when making hybrid/variety decisions for next year. Be sure to take a look at the previous year or two’s plot data and, for sure, think back at least a couple years on your own farms before making any critical hybrid/variety choices.

Having just gone through a fall harvest not without its share of headaches, I think I would be remiss if I didn’t address some of the harvest issues that occurred this year. Certainly, the windstorm that occurred on October 26^th (which for all practical purposes was around the beginning of the corn harvest in central Iowa) had a detrimental affect on standability some hybrids more than others. High yielding, early maturing, fast die, fast dry genetic types that many producers and seedsmen alike have demanded over the past 4-5 years had very little green tissue left in the stalk by the end of October when the wind storm hit. As a result, stalk lodging occurred, some areas worse than others. These hybrid types have become extremely popular in recent years, not only for their superior yield potential, but also their fast dry down for maturity which ultimately results in more $/acre in the pocket at the end of the year. Fast dry down doesn’t come just by chance. Plant types that have open husks and that mature and die early dry down most rapidly. Even before the wind storm hit these were the first hybrid types that were being harvested with grain moistures in the low 20’s. Hybrid types that withstood the wind the best were later maturing, greener stalked hybrids that were also higher grain moisture. These hybrid types had harvest moistures in the high 20’s at the same date. We had multiple hybrids of both types in our plots and definitely observed less stalk lodging in the wetter, slower drying hybrids. From our conversations with various producers throughout the fall harvest, I know that many of you observed some of the same things that we saw in our plots.

What can we take from this? In a nut shell, there is no such thing as a perfect hybrid. Hybrids are a balance of many different things, including yield, dry down, stalks, roots, late season intactness, and so on down the list. In the end, a producer needs to go back 4 or 5 years or more and look at how certain genetic types have performed in different growing environments and then ask themselves which hybrid types have put the most money in their pockets with the least amount of risk. Then ask the following questions:

What are the odds that next year will be just like this year? Or better yet....

Out of the last 5 or 10 years, how many times did we have a year similar to ’08?

Will next year be a wet, dry, or average moisture year?

Will stalks or roots be the issue next year?

These questions are just food for thought but are worthy of consideration when it comes to weighing out which hybrids and varieties to plant next year.

A final thought that I would leave you with is … What is the value of better dry down and yield? Let’s look at each one individually.

Suppose you have two different hybrids with a similar maturity rating and similar yields but year-in and year-out one is 2 pts./bushel drier at harvest time. If drying costs are 5¢/pt, drying cost per bushel is 10¢/bu. At 180bu/ac that’s $18/ac more in drying costs for the wetter hybrid. If you compare the $18/ac value in drydown to value/bag of seed… that’s equal to $43/bag at a common seeding rate of 2.4 acres/bag of seedcorn.

Next, everything else equal, let’s assume that one hybrid out-yields a competitor by 10bu/ac. With simple math… at $3.00/bu selling price X 10bu/ac, that’s an increase of $30/acre. In other words, the value/bag of seed at 2.4 acres/bag is $72/bag.

No doubt, the above scenarios involve some assumptions and may be somewhat over-simplified. But the reason I included them in this article is that there are some wide swings in initial bag price between different hybrids on the market today. And with the current market environment with high input prices and low grain prices, it’s causing many producers to push the pencil more than ever, with good reason. Just don’t forget about the other side of the equation. Are you giving up more on the back side than you are gaining on the front?