Does History Actually Repeat?
March 24, 2017
There appears to be a substantial number of bushels and producers that are hoping that history will repeat. Another way to put it is that the hope is we have a corn rally like last year. Where we had corn drop 20 cents into March month end then rallied 80 cents until June 14th when the peak was hit and the party was over as December corn hit $4.46 on the CBOT. Then the slide started as December corn closed at $3.71 on June 30th and continued to slide as it closed at $3.65 on July 14th and then $3.34 on August 1st and it continued as it closed at $3.30 on September 15th.
The corn movement has been slow as the memory of last year’s corn rally has producer’s waiting until after spring work to see how the new crop outlook progresses. I can’t say that I have a clue on what might happen as I thought last year we had little to no chance of a rally with the carry outs we had. But the mistake was to not take into account the Funds appetite to buy after selling off. That as we have said and continue to say is the wild card you cannot bank on or out guess as the Funds are more fickle and unpredictable than a 3 year old in a toy store. Maybe that would be the way to predict what the Funds are going to do. Take a 3 year old to the toy store and put buy and sell stickers on miscellaneous toys throughout the store and mark which ones are picked. That would be as reliable as trying to look at charts, supply and demand, and carry out numbers to determine the Funds next move.
We do have Free Price Later at all locations as space allows.
As I write this on the 20th of March the next big USDA Crop Report will be the prospective plantings report on March 31st and that will give us some idea on the direction of the market or so we would hope. I tried to take the quote below to heart.
“If you’ve got nothing to say, don’t take an hour to prove it.” – Texas Bix Bender