By Scott Stabbe, Key Cooperative Grain Department Manager
Crop issues or Funds. Which wins out or has the bigger effect on the markets as we go through the summer? Right now, it appears the Funds have the bigger stick since they’ve been the market mover with grains following the outside markets on major move days. The big down day in beans also had to do with outside influences since the Brazilian Real (Brazil dollar) dropped 6% and then beans dropped $.31 cents nearby as there was talk of Brazilian farmer sales being big that day. Although, with the lack of follow through the next day, it would make one believe the majority of the downward pressure was Fund selling. Looking at the past, when Brazil has had monetary and economic issues, the farmers were more willing to keep the beans as a hedge against inflation. The only time they would sell is when they needed cash to pay bills. So, why would they do any different this time with the uncertainty of the overall Brazilian economy? This situation should be good for U.S. bean exports as it would delay the big glut hitting the Brazilian ports for the time being; but the day of reckoning is still coming.
Concerns in the U.S. due to less than ideal planting conditions has not yet been much of an influence on the markets. However, you would think it has easily taken off the top-end of the overall yields for both corn and beans. Yet we have the market speculating a potential acre shift from corn to beans, which would drop the corn acres even more than any of the earlier predictions. With the early wet weather, do we end up seeing more sudden death issues in this year’s bean crop? As with any crop year, there are more questions than answers and will remain that way until well into the summer. This is precisely the reason to look at varying your sales; whether it’s staggered offers, an average price contract or just selling on your own here and there. There is no perfect plan and most will vary based on personal preference or how it ties into your crop and revenue insurance program levels.
If there is anything your Key Cooperative grain team can assist you with, please give us a call.
Thank you for your patronage.
“The mistake is thinking that there can be an antidote to the uncertainty.” – David Levithan