Are You Thinking About Grain Markets? You Should Be!

Jul 09, 2024


Colton Voga
Grain Merchandiser


SUMMER IS IN FULL SWING, and that can only mean one thing—it’s time to start thinking about grain markets! Since planting went fairly smoothly (minus the few rain events and replants), we can finally sit back and watch the crop grow and contemplate what it’s worth. The old saying “knee high by the Fourth of July” is out the window. The hybrids are so strong these days, I think I saw a corn maze opening its doors this week. So, don’t let July turn into a could have, should have, would have month!

Historically, December futures tend to peak at the beginning of July, then fall off going into harvest. What does that mean? It means if you have bushels left to sell or want to get some new crop sold ahead of harvest, now is the time. At bare minimum, you should at least have a plan in place for what you are going to do with your grain. Remember, bushels that are forward marketed don’t get charged storage. Now yes, crazy things can happen, and we could be completely wrong; December futures could run higher going into fall, but according to this chart, the odds are not in your favor.



There is something to watch outside of domestic growing conditions and production. Last month, Brazil introduced a new tax package that could raise farm taxes by 20 percent. As you can imagine, this measure was met by a lot of pushback from producers and halted selling. It only took about a week for them to start withdrawing the policy change. This event is just an example of how South American politics can influence the grain markets. There is potential for small windows like this to create some increased export sales throughout the rest of the summer. I wouldn’t put too many eggs (if any) into the basket of foreign politics, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on.

July is also the month of my favorite holiday. I will hopefully be spending it on a boat somewhere blasting Toby Keith and doing my part to support the grain markets by consuming a few corn-based beverages. Many of our Founding Fathers were farmers themselves, including George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and James Madison. It took Thomas Jefferson 17 days to draft the Declaration of Independence, and we are still waiting for answers about the 45Z tax credit. My how the political system has changed!

I hope you enjoy the rest of your summer. Be sure to support your county fairs and all the kids participating. Key Cooperative will be serving a meal at six county fairs, and I invite you to stop by to say hello and grab something to eat! See below for details.


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