Reflecting on Harvest 2025 and What’s Coming Next
Nov 04, 2025
Jarod Lemper
Grain Division Manager
AS I WRITE THIS NOVEMBER ARTICLE, harvest 2025 is about half over. We found ourselves in a rainy period this October, which has slowed the pace. So far, yields have been about average for soybeans and a little disappointing for corn. This seems to be the general opinion across much of the Midwest. With the current government shutdown, the next official USDA report may not be available before this newsletter is published; it will be interesting to see what the national picture looks like in three weeks. We will have to wait and see what our local figures reflect.
Nationally, this corn crop has the potential to shrink compared to the last official report. I believe it’s possible we’ll see the soybean crop shrink as well. I’ve heard many reports that the soybean receipts at cooperatives scattered throughout the Midwest are a little disappointing—that includes Key as well. With harvest not fully complete, it’s hard to say for sure because a few thousand acres throughout our territory could make up the difference.
A lower harvest volume could indicate a few things. One, there may have been a larger switch in acres to corn. Two, yields are not as good as had been thought. Or three, more beans are being put in farm storage. We’ll need to get the corn harvest a little further along to get a better picture on volume. What will the market look like post-harvest? The lack of soybean exports is clearly putting pressure on the market. I think the possible smaller crop and the resolution of the export situation does give the soybean market potential for some exciting action later this year. I also think the shrinking corn crop will keep the corn market supported as well. Overall, we’ve seen a relatively flat corn market since the end of August, trading in a 20-cent window. On the day I’m writing this piece, closing is $4.20 CZ5, right in the middle of that window. Soybeans are on the lower end of a 50-cent window, closing at $10.10 SX5.
There’s no clear marketing path that I can get behind at the moment. Storing this crop and waiting for a rally has some potential, considering the current picture, but the timing of the positive changes could lessen the economic gain. If the corn market has a 30-cent rally potential, but it takes four months to get there, there’s no true benefit. The conservative marketer in me says to do a little of both. If you have decent yields, unload some of that price risk and hang on to part of the crop for the future. The alternative is to replace ownership of some of the crop, either on your own or through a minimum price contract. Either way, lean on your Key Grain Marketing Specialists to help you navigate these decisions.
I hope you all have a safe finish to harvest!
Grain Division Manager
AS I WRITE THIS NOVEMBER ARTICLE, harvest 2025 is about half over. We found ourselves in a rainy period this October, which has slowed the pace. So far, yields have been about average for soybeans and a little disappointing for corn. This seems to be the general opinion across much of the Midwest. With the current government shutdown, the next official USDA report may not be available before this newsletter is published; it will be interesting to see what the national picture looks like in three weeks. We will have to wait and see what our local figures reflect.
Nationally, this corn crop has the potential to shrink compared to the last official report. I believe it’s possible we’ll see the soybean crop shrink as well. I’ve heard many reports that the soybean receipts at cooperatives scattered throughout the Midwest are a little disappointing—that includes Key as well. With harvest not fully complete, it’s hard to say for sure because a few thousand acres throughout our territory could make up the difference.
A lower harvest volume could indicate a few things. One, there may have been a larger switch in acres to corn. Two, yields are not as good as had been thought. Or three, more beans are being put in farm storage. We’ll need to get the corn harvest a little further along to get a better picture on volume. What will the market look like post-harvest? The lack of soybean exports is clearly putting pressure on the market. I think the possible smaller crop and the resolution of the export situation does give the soybean market potential for some exciting action later this year. I also think the shrinking corn crop will keep the corn market supported as well. Overall, we’ve seen a relatively flat corn market since the end of August, trading in a 20-cent window. On the day I’m writing this piece, closing is $4.20 CZ5, right in the middle of that window. Soybeans are on the lower end of a 50-cent window, closing at $10.10 SX5.
There’s no clear marketing path that I can get behind at the moment. Storing this crop and waiting for a rally has some potential, considering the current picture, but the timing of the positive changes could lessen the economic gain. If the corn market has a 30-cent rally potential, but it takes four months to get there, there’s no true benefit. The conservative marketer in me says to do a little of both. If you have decent yields, unload some of that price risk and hang on to part of the crop for the future. The alternative is to replace ownership of some of the crop, either on your own or through a minimum price contract. Either way, lean on your Key Grain Marketing Specialists to help you navigate these decisions.
I hope you all have a safe finish to harvest!